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Prix de l'Opera - Form Comments

03/10/2014

Prix de l'Opera    Form Comments

G1 - 2000m - Turf

Narniyn

Has been beaten as favourite on her last two starts and was certainly disappointing in a G1 at Deauville last time when she looked to have a lot going for her but failed to quicken at the end. She won a G3 in good style over this course and distance earlier in the season, the ground being very soft that day.

Ribbons

Trained in the UK where she was mostly competing in handicaps. Her trainer admitted that he had sleepless nights after committing her to a G1 over this distance at Deauville in August fearing that she would be outclassed. However it was she who did the outclassing, producing a sustained surge from last to first. This distance looks ideal whilst soft ground would be helpful.

Sultanina

A lightly-raced four-year-old who pounced to win a G1 on just her fourth career start. Admittedly that 1975m test was a particularly weak G1, at Goodwood, and the form of the race has not been enhanced since. The Arc was then a possible target prior to her run in the G1 Prix Vermeille (2400m) here last month, but though only beaten 1 ¾ lengths in fifth she never looked like winning. This looks a bit easier and she might still be progressing.

Cocktail Queen

Her three-year-old career was apparently ruined by ringworm and she has since moved from the UK to France where the ground is often softer - and thus more suitable for her. She really came into her own on those conditions at Deauville in August first winning a G3 and then landing a G2 for which she had been supplemented. The latter win was over 2500m, but she is also effective over this shorter distance.

Nymphea

She was a G1 winner over 2400m at Hoppegarten in July 2013 but she has failed to win in seven starts since and the fact that she was beaten 14 lengths and 11 ½ lengths in her two most recent starts does not bode especially well for her prospects in this hot G1. She also seems better over a longer distance than this.

Shamkala

Withdrawn from the Arc earlier this week, and this looks a more appropriate target for a filly who looked really smart when winning her first three starts, but has been slightly disappointing when favourite for her two subsequent runs. Admittedly she did run a respectable fourth in the French Oaks over 2100m at Chantilly in June when she looked as though a move up to 2400m plus would help. However when she did tackle a longer distance in a G2 at Deauville in August, she ran very flat.

Hadaatha

She is very unexposed having raced just three times. However she looked to have plenty of class about her when showing a good attitude and change of gears to win a Listed race at Yarmouth on her first start after a break. Her UK-based trainer won this race with a similar type in 2011.

Tarfasha

Very likely to be favourite, given that she finished second to likely Arc favourite Taghrooda in the G1 Oaks at Epsom in June and beat Chicquita - another Arc candidate - in good style in a G2 over this distance at The Curragh last month. Her trainer reckons this is her ideal trip, whilst though she has won twice on a soft surface, good ground or even faster would probably be ideal.

Crisolles

She has won three of her eight starts but her best performance was certainly in defeat last time when she made the unbeaten Arc fancy Avenir Certain have to work a bit for her money in a G2 over this distance at Deauville in August. The ground was very soft that day and one can imagine those conditions would be preferable for her here.

Feodora

Few signs that she was anything special earlier in her career and when this German-trained filly came to Chantilly for the G1 French Oaks in June she made no impact as the betting suggested. However after a break she reappeared in a G1 for three-year-old fillies over 2200m in Dusseldorf and, despite starting at odds of 26-1, she thrashed her 11 rivals. We will see here if that was a fluke or not, but German-trained horses certainly deserve respect in France.

Lavender Lane

The winner of one of her six starts - a minor event - but her last four starts - including a 4-length third behind unbeaten Arc fancy Avenir Certain in a G2 over this distance at Deauville in August - have all revealed that she is capable of winning at a group race level. However this hot G1 may well be too much to handle at this stage of her career.

We Are

Looked top class in three wins - including a G1 over this course and distance - in the first half of the season (later disqualified due to high levels of testosterone) but was then diagnosed with ovarian cancer and spent the summer on the sidelines. She has made a full recovery and, though she looked rusty on her comeback here recently, she is likely to improve a great deal from that run.

 

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