"The season is a marathon - not a sprint."

Trainers, jockeys, punters... they all say it at the start of every new season. But only if the winners aren't rolling in like they had hoped. While obviously true, it's a line that also serves as consolation to those who need a little time to find their rhythm. This applies especially to those who are new to Hong Kong. For example, it took John Egan until race number 52 to ride his first winner last season. Fifty more wins followed in much shorter intervals.

Virtually every trainer goes through a dry patch at some point but who is the quickest out of the blocks when it comes to training winners in the early part of the season?

Do recent trends suggest that punters should be concentrating on Chinese trainers or those from overseas?
Who consistently scores the most winners over the early part of the season - or is there any consistency, any pattern, to the way the initial results in the new the season flow?

2000/01	1999/00	1998/99
1997/98	1996/97

Let's start with the trainers that have trained more winners in the first ten weeks of the season over the past five terms than anyone else: Lawrie Fownes, Brian Kan and David Hayes.

Fownes regularly features among the top six trainers at the end of every season with 30 plus winners. Our chart illustrates that only once in the past five seasons has he started sluggishly with three winners from the first 75 or so races. Interestingly, this torpid early season form has hit Hayes and Kan as well in recent years.

There's no reason why Fownes shouldn't be good to follow again over the early part of this season especially with much more expected from young performers such as Smiling Forest and Hennessy Star.

As for Kan and Hayes? Well, considering the size and quality of their respective strings, it would be a surprise if they were not challenging for winners at practically every meeting. The same applies to Ivan Allan who ended last season with 57 horses, the largest team at Sha Tin. Punters should be aware, though, that Allan has been less than prolific at this stage of the campaign in recent seasons.

Other trainers that haven't been the fastest away of late considering the healthy number of horses under their care are Wong Tang-ping and Andy Leung. They have mustered just 10 winners between them over the period concerned. This could well change this time around.

Expect other trainers to improve as well. From having just one winner in the first weeks of his training career in Hong Kong in 1999, Tony Millard rattled off half a dozen of them last season. He could do even better this time. Gary Ng and Tony Cruz are always bright starters and pay attention to the horses from the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard. The Englishman is now responsible for 30 horses - more than he has ever had in his brief tenure here and the pressure is on for him to perform. Expect him to deliver.

What about the new trainers John size and Manfred Man? The statistics clearly show that it's hard enough for several established players to score early on so it's going to be a lot tougher for them. A couple of successes apiece early on would be a respectable start for both men.

Make of this data what you will. Just remember that it's merely a guide to what has happened in the past not the future and that, like the old saying goes, there are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics...